Recent shifts in China’s crude oil import patterns are impacting tanker market dynamics, according to a report by shipbroker Gibson. Weak demand for crude in China, driven by the rising adoption of electric vehicles, reduced industrial activity, and declining consumer spending, has emerged as a major factor in tanker markets. The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently revised its forecast for China’s crude demand growth, citing a drop to just 150,000 barrels per day.
China’s crude imports have decreased by around 440,000 barrels per day, with the country now adjusting its sourcing to prioritize nearby suppliers. Imports from distant regions have declined, while imports from closer sources have grown. Much of the imported crude has been directed to reserves, and refinery output has been below capacity.
Since 2019, geopolitical events have further influenced crude trade flows, including China’s strict COVID-19 policies, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and disruptions in the Red Sea caused by Houthi control. This has led to an increase in the “grey fleet”—ships that transport sanctioned oil from countries like Russia and Iran to destinations such as China and India.
China’s imports from Russian and Iranian ports have notably risen, with Iranian imports showing significant growth. Conversely, imports from West Africa, Libya, and Latin America have declined sharply, largely due to production cuts in those regions.
