India has emerged as the European Union’s largest fuel supplier, with exports rising by 58% in the first three quarters of 2024. This surge stems from India’s access to discounted Russian crude, which it refines and exports to Europe, leveraging the absence of sanctions on refined products. In October alone, India imported €2 billion in Russian crude, priced $5.14 below Brent, allowing it to supply an average of 154,000 barrels per day to the EU—almost double Europe’s pre-war import levels.
Since the EU introduced a price cap on Russian oil in December 2022, India has imported over €6 billion worth of Russian crude, strengthening its role as an essential intermediary for Europe’s energy needs. Major Indian refiners, like Reliance and Nayara, have capitalized on this opportunity, filling the EU’s energy gap and benefiting from favorable pricing. This strategic position has underscored India’s significance in the global energy market while providing a reliable source of refined fuels to Europe amid sanctions on direct Russian oil imports.
However, the recent U.S. election victory of Donald Trump, coupled with Putin’s openness to dialogue, could shift the landscape. Trump’s commitment to restoring U.S.-Russia relations and potentially resolving the Ukraine crisis may lead to relaxed sanctions on Russian oil, allowing Europe to consider direct imports from Russia again. Given that India relies on imports for 85% of its crude needs, a diminished intermediary role could prompt the country to accelerate its domestic energy initiatives, including renewable investments, and diversify its oil suppliers to mitigate risks from future geopolitical shifts.
