The incoming Trump administration is reportedly planning to expand sanctions on Iran’s oil sector, targeting not just crude exports but a wider range of petroleum products. This strategy aims to intensify economic pressure on Tehran by cutting off additional revenue streams.
According to sources familiar with the matter, the new measures could include restrictions on Iran’s petrochemical and refined oil product exports, which currently account for approximately $10 billion annually. The sanctions might also extend to companies and individuals involved in transporting or facilitating the trade of these goods. Such a move would mark a shift in U.S. tactics, as previous sanctions primarily focused on crude oil sales, which dropped from 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018 to under 400,000 bpd by 2020.
Experts suggest that these expanded sanctions are designed to address Iran’s attempts to bypass current restrictions. Reports indicate that Iran has been using intermediaries and opaque transactions to continue exporting oil and its derivatives. By targeting these methods, the U.S. hopes to further limit Iran’s economic resilience.
This development could have far-reaching implications for global energy markets, particularly in regions heavily reliant on Iranian oil products. Analysts predict tighter supply chains and potential price volatility if the sanctions are enforced effectively. For instance, petrochemical prices in Asia, a key consumer of Iranian products, could see a 10-15% spike.
The broader sanctions plan is expected to be part of the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran, aimed at forcing concessions on nuclear and regional issues once Trump assumes office. Whether these measures will achieve their intended goals remains to be seen.